South Africa is grappling with a severe energy crisis as Eskom, the country’s power utility, warns of an even worse year for load-shedding in 2024. The 52-week outlook reveals a consistent “red” status, indicating a significant electricity shortfall exceeding 2,001 MW every week. Compared to the previous year, where only two weeks were designated as high-risk, Eskom’s 2024 projections indicate a substantial increase in unplanned outages and breakdown risk scenarios. The country experienced its worst load-shedding in 2023, with regular stage 6 power cuts, and the outlook for 2024 appears grim. Despite political assurances, the proposed Integrated Resource Plan suggests extensive load-shedding until at least 2027, with plans for new power generation capacity focused on gas, solar, wind, and battery storage, but significant relief is only anticipated in the coming years.
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South Africa just had its worst year of load-shedding — Eskom warns to expect even worse in 2024
The draft IRP outlines several different strategies for building new power generation capacity.
It shows that the plans underway to end load-shedding will only bear fruit in another four years as more gas, solar, wind, and battery storage capacity comes online.
Crucial milestones include a 1,000MW independent gas power plant and 2,000MW battery storage system set to come online in 2027, and another 4,000MW of gas power (1,000MW independent and 3,000MW from Eskom) set to launch in 2028.
The following chart shows Eskom’s system outlook between January 2024 and December 2024.
The second chart provides a comparison of the same report a year earlier. It shows the system outlook between January 2023 and December 2023.
Eskom 52-week outlook from January 2024 to December 2024
Eskom 52-week outlook from January 2023 to December 2023